Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Zach RemillardBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to center (438 feet), Trout scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 19–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–5
- 9Vaughn scored on Webb wild pitch.9–5
- 9Vaughn scored on Webb wild pitch.9–5
- 9Vaughn tripled to right, Robert Jr. scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 3Drury scored on Lynn wild pitch, Thaiss to second on wild pitch by Lynn.7–5
- 3Drury scored on Lynn wild pitch, Thaiss to second on wild pitch by Lynn.7–5
- 3Remillard singled to right, Frazier scored and Grandal scored, Zavala to third.7–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 3Frazier singled to right, Jiménez scored, Grandal to second.5–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 3Grandal reached on infield single to second, Robert Jr. scored, Jiménez to third.4–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Jiménez singled to center, Anderson scored and Remillard scored, Robert Jr. to third.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 2Renfroe homered to left (407 feet), Thaiss scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Moustakas homered to right (388 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 58%
- Fair odds
- LAA -122
- CHW +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −3 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +59 Elo | LAA 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3015–27 | Road vs home | 22–1710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 2–4 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.