Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Seby ZavalaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jaime BarriaPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Zavala singled to left, Burger scored and Remillard scored.11–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 39–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 8Drury singled to right, Ohtani scored, Moustakas to third.9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 7Renfroe homered to left center (415 feet).9–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 7Drury homered to right center (369 feet).9–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 5Zavala homered to left (364 feet).9–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 4Vaughn doubled to center, Benintendi scored, Robert Jr. scored and Anderson scored.8–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 3Remillard doubled to center, Vaughn scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–2
- 3Jiménez homered to left center (407 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 2Zavala homered to left center (392 feet).3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Drury singled to center, Trout scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 1Trout tripled to left, Ohtani scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Robert Jr. homered to center (444 feet), Benintendi scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 58%
- Fair odds
- LAA -122
- CHW +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +7 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Jaime Barria: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +53 Elo | LAA 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 22–169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–4 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.