Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting3-4
- Michael KopechPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vaughn singled to right, Jiménez scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Moustakas singled to center, Velazquez scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7Ohtani homered to left center (404 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Sheets singled to right, Frazier scored, Burger to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Fletcher grounded out to second, Rengifo scored, Wallach to second.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (418 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 58%
- Fair odds
- LAA -121
- CHW +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +54 Elo | LAA 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–26 | Road vs home | 21–1610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–3 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.