Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mets- Tommy PhamBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yelich singled to center, Anderson scored and Perkins scored, Wiemer to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Perkins singled to left, Miller scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Alvarez walked, Lindor scored, Pham to second, Alonso to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 42–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pham homered to left (404 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Winker doubled to center, Adames scored and Yelich scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Fair odds
- NYM -106
- MIL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +10 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +6 Elo | NYM 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 18–1617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 4–1 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.