Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adames homered to center (397 feet).7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Ramírez homered to right center (411 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Yelich singled to center, Urías scored, Wiemer to third.6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 6Wiemer singled to left, Perkins scored, Urías to second.5–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Adames homered to left (423 feet), Contreras scored and Tellez scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Adames singled to center, Contreras scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | 0 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +6 Elo | CLE 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 19–1721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.