Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Owen MillerBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Miller doubled to left, Wiemer scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Brennan singled to left, Freeman scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 6Giménez scored on Burnes wild pitch, Freeman to third on wild pitch by Burnes.4–3
- 6Giménez scored on Burnes wild pitch, Freeman to third on wild pitch by Burnes.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Giménez tripled to right, Ramírez scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Wiemer hit sacrifice fly to left, Monasterio scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Tellez singled to right, Miller scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Miller doubled to right, Yelich scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Yelich doubled to center, Wiemer scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2J. Naylor homered to right center (393 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Fair odds
- CLE -112
- MIL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +11 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +40 Elo | CLE 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 20–1820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.