Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Guardians- David FryBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Giménez singled to center, Freeman scored on error, Giménez safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Yelich.2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Fry singled to left, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6J. Naylor singled to left, Rosario scored, Ramírez to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4J. Naylor grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Kwan scored, Ramírez out at second, Rosario to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Contreras singled to right, Yelich scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Yelich scored on error, Tellez safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Fry, Tellez safe at second on error.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Fair odds
- CLE -110
- MIL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −2 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +29 Elo | CLE 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 19–1821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.