Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brian AndersonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Anderson singled to left, Contreras scored and Yelich scored, Tellez to third.2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 6Vogelbach homered to center (399 feet), Pham scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 6Pham doubled to left, Alonso scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Nimmo homered to center (396 feet), Vogelbach scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Lindor homered to center (413 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Nimmo homered to right center (422 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | MIL: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +10 Elo | MIL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 17–1619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 4–0 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.