Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Carson KellyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 12 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani homered to right (454 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 2Moniak homered to center (406 feet), Escobar scored and Fletcher scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2C. Kelly homered to left (397 feet), Longoria scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Trout homered to left center (436 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Fair odds
- LAA -103
- ARI +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −2 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +16 Elo | ARI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–14 | Road vs home | 22–2016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 2–0 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.