Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting3-4
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Anthony RendonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7McCarthy tripled to right, Moreno scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Ahmed scored on error, Marte safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rendon, Fletcher to second.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Fletcher reached on infield single to shortstop, Rivera scored, Ahmed to third.1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Rendon homered to left (374 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 50%
- Fair odds
- LAA -105
- ARI +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.9 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −4 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +3 Elo | ARI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3025–14 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–0 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.