San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting2-4
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Estrada grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Davis scored, Bailey out at second.1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pham doubled to left, Alonso scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Lindor homered to right center (403 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Nimmo homered to right (406 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Alvarez homered to right center (416 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Fair odds
- NYM -100
- SF +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −5 | SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +14 Elo | SF 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 18–1923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–2 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.