San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-4
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Estrada doubled to left, Davis scored and Pederson scored.3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Bailey doubled to right, Estrada scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -110
- SF +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +20 Elo | TOR 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 21–147th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.