Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Victor CaratiniBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Anderson hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored, Miller to second, Adames to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Caratini homered to center (415 feet), Tellez scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Nimmo homered to left (357 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Baty homered to right (389 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Fair odds
- NYM -106
- MIL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +11 Elo | NYM 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 18–1718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 5–1 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.