San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mets- Tommy PhamBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bailey homered to center (432 feet), Pederson scored and Davis scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Pham homered to left (411 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5McNeil doubled, Nimmo scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Flores homered to center (409 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Narváez hit sacrifice fly to center, Pham scored, Baty safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Matos.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Crawford singled to center, Sabol scored, Matos to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1McNeil doubled to left, Lindor scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- NYM +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −9 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +32 Elo | SF 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 18–1821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–2 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.