San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Blake SabolBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso homered to center (433 feet), Pham scored.4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Marte singled to left, Alonso scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Davis doubled to right, Estrada scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Sabol homered to left center (383 feet), Pederson scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Pham doubled to second, Nimmo scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Canha homered to left center (376 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3McNeil reached on infield single to second, Nimmo and Pham scored on fielding error by shortstop Crawford, Alonso to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Alonso walked, Alvarez scored, Pham to second, Nimmo to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball 41–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Fair odds
- NYM -102
- SF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −7 | SF: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +6 Elo | SF 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–3 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.