San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soto hit sacrifice fly to left, Nola scored.12–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 8Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Grisham scored, Nola to third.11–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 310–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging10–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul10–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 210–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–5
- 7India homered to center (430 feet), Stephenson scored, Benson scored and McLain scored.10–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–5
- 7Machado homered to left center (411 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.10–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to center, Kim scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 7Nola grounded out to shortstop, Grisham scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Grisham tripled to right, Cronenworth scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Machado homered to left center (388 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -116
- SD +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.0 – 5.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −5 | SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +7 Elo | CIN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 22–2017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–2 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.