San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Davis singled to right, Suwinski scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Suwinski reached on infield single to pitcher, Castro scored. Triolo scored, Suwinski safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Hill.4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Davis singled to left, McCutchen scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to center, Davis scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Kim homered to left center (397 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Grisham homered to right center (419 feet), Odor scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Kim hit sacrifice fly to left, Cronenworth scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −5 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +8 Elo | SD 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 0–2 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.