San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Pirates- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Davis singled to right, Joe scored and Palacios scored, McCutchen to third.1–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 21–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 7Joe singled to center, Suwinski scored and Triolo scored, Palacios to second.1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7Palacios singled to right, Gonzales scored, Triolo to second, Suwinski to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Bogaerts singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Santana homered to left center (427 feet), Davis scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -108
- SD +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +7 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 19–1922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.