San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Drew CarltonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Carlos SantanaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gonzales homered to center (442 feet).4–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 6Castro singled to left, Santana scored, Castro to second.4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Santana singled to left, McCutchen scored, Santana to second.4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Cruz singled to center, Bogaerts scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 4Davis singled to right, Hedges scored, McCutchen to second.3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 3Suwinski homered to right center (421 feet).3–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Santana homered to right center (394 feet).3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2McCutchen singled to left, Gonzales scored, Hedges to second.3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Gonzales tripled to right, Castro scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -107
- SD +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −5 | SD: Reiss Knehr (no track record yet) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +8 Elo | SD 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 18–1923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.