San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Trent GrishamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Steer homered to left center (434 feet), Senzel scored.5–7
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 11De La Cruz doubled to right, India scored.5–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 11Sánchez reached on infield single to second, Bogaerts scored.5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 10McLain homered to center (421 feet), Stephenson scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 10Soto doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.4–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 10Tatis Jr. singled to left, Odor scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 9Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to right, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to third.2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Stephenson homered to left (379 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -115
- SD +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.9 – 5.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −18 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +8 Elo | CIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 21–2019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–1 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.