Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-3
- Tyler WellsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Friedl homered to right center (379 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6McLain homered to center (402 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4McLain doubled to center, Friedl scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2McKenna hit sacrifice fly to right, Hicks scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -118
- CIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +1 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +25 Elo | BAL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 25–142nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.