Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake WongPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rutschman singled to center, Mateo scored and Hays scored.3–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Hays hit a ground rule double, McKenna scored, Mateo to third.3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 6Steer homered to center (418 feet), De La Cruz scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 5Urías scored on Salazar wild pitch.1–7
- 5Urías scored on Salazar wild pitch.1–7
- 5Mullins hit sacrifice fly to left, Hicks scored, Urías to third.1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Urías doubled to center, Santander scored, Hicks to third.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Westburg grounded into fielder's choice to third, Santander scored. Urías scored on throwing error by second baseman India, Mullins out at second.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Hays singled to center, McKenna scored and Westburg scored, Mateo to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Steer singled to left, Newman scored, India to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Fair odds
- BAL -116
- CIN +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −18 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +16 Elo | BAL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 24–143rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.