Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Maile scored on Akin wild pitch.11–7
- 10Maile scored on Akin wild pitch.11–7
- 10Friedl homered to right (381 feet), Benson scored.10–7
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball In Play10–7
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 38–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–7
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 28–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 10Benson tripled to right, Newman scored.8–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul7–7
- 8Frazier homered to right (369 feet), Westburg scored.7–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8Westburg doubled to left, Hicks scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 8McLain grounded out to first, Benson scored, Friedl to second.7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 2Fraley singled to right, McLain scored.6–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 2India grounded out to shortstop, Friedl scored.5–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 2Friedl reached on infield single to second, Benson scored.4–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 1Henderson tripled to left, Santander scored, O'Hearn scored and Hays scored.3–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −7 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +48 Elo | BAL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 25–154th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–1 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.