New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting5-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-3
- Ryne NelsonPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lindor homered to center (437 feet).9–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 5Alvarez singled to center, Vogelbach scored, McNeil to second.8–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Alvarez homered to left center (408 feet), McNeil scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3McNeil hit a ground rule double, Vogelbach scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Vogelbach doubled to right, Alonso scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Alonso homered to left (371 feet), Lindor scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Fair odds
- ARI -122
- NYM +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +5 | NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +57 Elo | ARI 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 3020–27 | Road vs home | 24–2217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–0 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.