New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canha tripled to center, Baty scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Alvarez homered to right center (383 feet).1–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 7Walker homered to left center (434 feet).0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -122
- NYM +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +4 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +44 Elo | ARI 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–27 | Road vs home | 24–2115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.