Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jaime BarriaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to center, Grisham scored, Soto to third.3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Cronenworth singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to second.3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Tatis Jr. tripled to right, Grisham scored and Soto scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Rengifo homered to right (351 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Machado singled to left, Soto scored, Tatis Jr. to second.2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Trout singled to center, Moustakas scored, Ward to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Ward doubled to right, Rengifo scored, Moustakas to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Cronenworth reached on infield single to second, Bogaerts scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Bogaerts homered to left (387 feet), Soto scored and Machado scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Fair odds
- SD -107
- LAA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +3 | LAA: Jaime Barria: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +24 Elo | SD 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 18–2226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.