San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian MorejonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cronenworth doubled to center, Sánchez scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 8Stephenson homered to right (370 feet), Fairchild scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to left (420 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 8Kim homered to left (383 feet).1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Steer homered to left (441 feet), Votto scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 58%
- Fair odds
- CIN -120
- SD +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.2 – 5.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +25 | SD: Adrian Morejon (no track record yet) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 1.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +55 Elo | CIN 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 20th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 22–2118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 3–2 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.