Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Matt ThaissBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado walked, Kim scored, Soto to second, Tatis Jr. to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 43–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Bogaerts grounded out to pitcher, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second, Soto to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Thaiss homered to right center (424 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Machado homered to left center (401 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Machado singled to right, Kim scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Adell doubled to shortstop, Moniak scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Rengifo singled to right, Renfroe scored on fielding error by right fielder Tatis Jr., Thaiss to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Tatis Jr. scored on pickoff error by pitcher Sandoval.0–1
- 1Tatis Jr. scored on pickoff error by pitcher Sandoval.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −10 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +23 Elo | SD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 20–2224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–2 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.