Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak walked, Renfroe scored, Wallach to second, Rengifo to third.5–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 45–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 9Wallach walked, Moustakas scored, Rengifo to second, Renfroe to third.4–8
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 44–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 34–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 24–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 9Escobar hit sacrifice fly to center, Adell scored.3–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 9Adell tripled to right, Ward scored.2–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 8Soto grounded out to third, Odor scored, Grisham to second.1–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 7Bogaerts singled to right, Soto scored, Machado to second.1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 7Machado reached on infield single to second, Kim scored, Soto to third.1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Fair odds
- SD -107
- LAA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −1 | LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +8 Elo | SD 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 19–2224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–1 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.