San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm scored on error, Ellis safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Soto, Ellis safe at second on error.8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 9Realmuto homered to right center (384 feet).8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Soto homered to center (434 feet), Grisham scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 7Kim singled to left, Dixon scored, Grisham to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Dixon singled to center, Cronenworth scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Machado homered to left (359 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Bohm doubled to right, Stott scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to left (432 feet), Grisham scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Sánchez homered to left (368 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -118
- SD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +11 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 22–167th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.