Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arraez singled to center, Cooper scored, Gurriel to third.3–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Soler hit sacrifice fly to center, Myers scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 2Schwarber grounded out to pitcher, Sosa scored, Pache to third.3–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 2Pache doubled to right, Bohm scored, Sosa to third.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Myers singled to right, Cooper scored and Gurriel scored, Berti to third.1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Soler homered to left (384 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Turner homered to left (368 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +3 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +12 Elo | MIA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3026–23 | Road vs home | 28–184th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.