New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark CanhaBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canha doubled to left, Nimmo scored and Guillorme scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Grisham singled to left, Sánchez scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Machado homered to right (337 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Machado homered to left (385 feet), Kim scored and Tatis Jr. scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Fair odds
- SD -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −1 | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +17 Elo | SD 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 22–2322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 3–2 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.