Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott grounded out to third, Bohm scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 8Fortes singled to center, Wendle scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7De La Cruz singled to left, Myers scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Sosa homered to left center (414 feet), Stott scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Segura singled to left, Sánchez scored, Cooper to second.0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3De La Cruz homered to center (404 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Myers homered to right (352 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Sánchez homered to center (461 feet), De La Cruz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Fair odds
- MIA -113
- PHI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +25 Elo | MIA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 29–184th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.