San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cronenworth scored on Soto wild pitch, Nola to third on wild pitch by Soto.4–9
- 9Cronenworth scored on Soto wild pitch, Nola to third on wild pitch by Soto.4–9
- 9Cronenworth scored on Soto wild pitch, Nola to third on fielder's indifference.4–9
- 9Cronenworth scored on Soto wild pitch, Nola to third on wild pitch by Soto.4–9
- 8Soto doubled to center, Kim scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 7Rojas singled to center, Stott scored, Stubbs to second, Sosa to third.2–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 7Stubbs walked, Bohm scored, Sosa to second, Stott to third.2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 42–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Sosa hit by pitch, Harper scored, Stott to second, Bohm to third.2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Turner singled to right, Sosa scored, Rojas to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Rojas reached on bunt single to second, Stott scored, Sosa to second.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–4
- 5Schwarber homered to right (346 feet), Stubbs scored and Rojas scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Grisham singled to right, Odor scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Harper homered to center (427 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Tatis Jr. grounded out to second, Kim scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -117
- SD +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +12 | SD: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 23–178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.