Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lukes doubled to left, Varsho scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Jansen homered to left center (414 feet), Chapman scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7Kirk grounded out to shortstop, Chapman scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Torkelson singled to right, McKinstry scored, Greene to second.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Greene homered to right center (408 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Cabrera singled to center, Báez scored, Baddoo to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- TOR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +13 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +5 Elo | TOR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3026–23 | Road vs home | 20–2425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.