Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jordan DiazBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Jonathan SchoopBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schoop doubled to left, Torkelson scored.12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–3
- 8Marisnick hit sacrifice fly to right, Nevin scored, Cabrera to third.12–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul12–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 312–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking12–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 212–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–1
- 8Cabrera doubled to right, Schoop scored, Nevin to third.12–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking12–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 212–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 112–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–0
- 8J. Diaz homered to right center (376 feet), Wade scored.12–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–0
- 8Wade grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Allen scored, Kemp out at second.10–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–0
- 6Ruiz singled to center, Allen scored and Kemp scored.9–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 19–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 6Kemp singled to right, Bleday scored and Langeliers scored, Allen to third.7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 4Langeliers homered to left (380 feet).5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 3A. Díaz doubled to center, J. Diaz scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Noda homered to right (397 feet), J. Diaz scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Fair odds
- DET -128
- OAK +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 5.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +17 | OAK: Austin Pruitt: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +79 Elo | DET 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 30th of 3012–31 | Road vs home | 18–2226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.