Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Brown singled to right, Bleday scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Bleday doubled to left, Kemp scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Rooker homered to center (441 feet), Langeliers scored.8–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 38–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7Burger homered to center (442 feet).8–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 6Jiménez singled to right, Anderson scored, Robert Jr. to second.7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Remillard scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Bleday doubled to right, Noda scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Brown walked, Kemp scored, Bleday to second, Noda to third.5–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 45–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Kemp singled to center, Capel scored, Wade thrown out at third.5–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 52%
- Fair odds
- CHW -101
- OAK +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.6 – 4.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +18 | CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +11 Elo | CHW 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 27th of 3016–29 | Road vs home | 12–3130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–2 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.