Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BanksPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Carlos PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robert Jr. homered to left (397 feet).4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 8Peterson singled to center, Wade scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8A. Díaz doubled to left, Bleday scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Benintendi doubled to right, Vaughn scored and Burger scored, Andrus to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pérez homered to left center (384 feet).1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 2Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Kemp scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 2Kemp tripled to right, Langeliers scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Peterson hit sacrifice fly to left, A. Díaz scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Langeliers singled to left, Bleday scored, A. Díaz to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Jiménez singled to left, Benintendi scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 60%
- Fair odds
- CHW -108
- OAK +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 4.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −24 | CHW: Tanner Banks: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +71 Elo | CHW 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −2.930th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 3016–27 | Road vs home | 10–3130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.