Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Wade scored on error, Bleday safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Andrus.6–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Kemp reached on infield single to first, Ruiz scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Noda scored on a balk, Ruiz to third on a balk.6–5
- 8Noda scored on a balk, Ruiz to third on a balk.6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Benintendi walked, Grandal scored, Remillard to second, Pérez to third.6–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 46–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pérez doubled to left, Frazier scored, Grandal to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Grandal singled to right, Robert Jr. scored, Frazier to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Brown homered to right (383 feet).3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Noda doubled to center, Peterson scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Bleday reached on infield single to second, Wade scored, Ruiz to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 59%
- Fair odds
- CHW -106
- OAK +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 4.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −21 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +62 Elo | CHW 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 3016–28 | Road vs home | 11–3129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.