Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching1.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, J. Smith scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 9Jankowski walked, Duran scored, Semien to second, J. Smith to third.8–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 48–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 38–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 8Torkelson homered to left (356 feet), McKinstry scored and Vierling scored.8–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8McKinstry singled to right, Rogers scored, McKinstry to second.5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Ibañez singled to left, Vierling scored, Torkelson to second.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Taveras homered to center (424 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Torkelson homered to left (394 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Duran homered to left center (388 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Fair odds
- TEX -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 5.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −24 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +67 Elo | TEX 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3016–24 | Road vs home | 26–142nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–4 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.