Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8García homered to center (419 feet), Lowe scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 33–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Lowe singled to center, Seager scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Seager doubled to center, Semien scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Duran homered to left (431 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 12 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball 33–3
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Torkelson homered to left (370 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Taveras singled to left, Jung scored, Taveras to second, Duran to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 61%
- Fair odds
- TEX -127
- DET +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 5.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +80 Elo | TEX 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 24–143rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–2 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.