Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Báez hit sacrifice fly to right, Vierling scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Rogers homered to left (404 feet), Cabrera scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4García homered to center (424 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Ibañez homered to center (427 feet), Vierling scored and Torkelson scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Schoop hit sacrifice fly to left, Haase scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Semien homered to left (392 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Fair odds
- TEX -129
- DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +86 Elo | TEX 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 25th of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 24–132nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–2 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.