Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching8.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carpenter homered to right center (414 feet), Ibañez scored.2–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–10
- 7García doubled to right, J. Smith scored, Lowe to third.0–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 7J. Smith singled to left, Taveras scored.0–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 6García homered to right center (398 feet), Seager scored.0–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Duran homered to left (349 feet).0–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Jung homered to right center (396 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Taveras singled to right, Jung scored, Garver to second, Duran to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Duran singled to left, García scored, Jung to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Jung singled to center, Seager scored, García to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Fair odds
- TEX -129
- DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 5.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −4 | DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +88 Elo | TEX 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 25–143rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–3 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.