Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8McMahon homered to left (370 feet), Profar scored.14–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 114–7
- 8Profar doubled to left, Doyle scored.14–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play14–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 314–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 214–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 114–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–6
- 8Marisnick homered to left (400 feet), Vierling scored, Short scored and Rogers scored.14–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 110–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–6
- 7Torkelson homered to left center (397 feet), McKinstry scored.10–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 6Tovar singled to right, Doyle scored, Profar to second.8–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 6Grichuk homered to left (410 feet).8–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 4Doyle hit sacrifice fly to right, Castro scored, Montero to third.8–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 4Montero doubled to center, Bryant scored, Castro to third.8–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 4Rogers homered to left (408 feet).8–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 3Carpenter homered to left center (381 feet), Torkelson scored and Ibañez scored.7–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 2Doyle hit sacrifice fly to right, Castro scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Montero hit sacrifice fly to center, Grichuk scored, Castro to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Báez homered to left (402 feet), McKinstry scored, Torkelson scored and Carpenter scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 50%
- Fair odds
- COL -106
- DET +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.4 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −6 | DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +3 Elo | COL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 20–2324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.