Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach LoguePitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bryant singled to left, Montes scored, Profar to third.4–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 10McKinstry homered to right center (400 feet), Schoop scored and Haase scored.4–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Schoop doubled to left, Marisnick scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Tovar singled to right, Cron scored, Tovar thrown out at second.0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Fair odds
- COL -108
- DET +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.6 – 5.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +10 | DET: Brendan White (no track record yet) · COL: Peter Lambert (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | COL +15 Elo | COL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 20–2224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.