Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ibañez homered to left center (397 feet), Torkelson scored.5–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Tovar homered to left (382 feet), Cron scored and Jones scored.3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Rogers scored on Gomber wild pitch, Cabrera to second on wild pitch by Gomber.3–5
- 4Rogers scored on Gomber wild pitch, Cabrera to second on wild pitch by Gomber.3–5
- 4Cabrera singled to right, Báez scored, Rogers to third.2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Torkelson grounded out to third, Marisnick scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Bryant grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Doyle scored, Profar out at second.0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Profar singled to right, Castro scored and Tovar scored, Doyle to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Castro singled to left, Cron scored and Jones scored, Tovar to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Fair odds
- COL -106
- DET +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.4 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.728th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 25th of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 19–2224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.