Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman singled to center, Peralta scored, Betts to third.8–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 8Hernández hit sacrifice fly to left, Heyward scored.7–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 6Díaz singled to center, Tovar scored, Díaz safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Vargas.6–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 6Tovar doubled to center, Alfaro scored, Profar scored and Doyle scored.6–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 6Profar walked, Grichuk scored, Doyle to second, Alfaro to third.6–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 46–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 36–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 4Betts homered to left (404 feet), Deluca scored and Hernández scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Hernández singled to center, Rojas scored and Vargas scored, Deluca to second.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Deluca walked, Smith scored, Rojas to second, Vargas to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 41–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Grichuk singled to center, Cron scored and McMahon scored, Jones to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Cron singled to left, Tovar scored, McMahon to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.6 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +39 Elo | LAD 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 18–2124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–0 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.