Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4
- Connor SeaboldPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Martinez homered to left (384 feet).5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Martinez homered to right (391 feet), Freeman scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Rojas hit sacrifice fly to right, Peralta scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Outman singled to right, Muncy scored, Heyward to second, Peralta to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Fair odds
- LAD -106
- COL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.7 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −11 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Connor Seabold: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +60 Elo | LAD 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 18–2024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.