Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting4-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting1-2, 3 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Heyward reached on infield single to shortstop, Martinez scored, Deluca to second.14–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play14–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul13–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul13–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging13–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 213–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 113–3
- 7Deluca singled to center, Hernández scored, Martinez to third.13–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 112–3
- 6Vargas tripled to center, Peralta scored.12–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 311–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 211–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 5Muncy singled to right, Betts scored, Freeman to second.11–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 5Freeman singled to right, Heyward scored and Outman scored, Betts to second.10–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 38–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 4Martinez homered to right (394 feet), Muncy scored.8–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 4Muncy doubled to right, Freeman scored and Outman scored.6–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Freeman singled to center, Vargas scored, Outman to third.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Heyward scored, Vargas to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -107
- COL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.8 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −43 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 2.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +80 Elo | LAD 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 19–2124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.