Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Oscar ColasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 11Vaughn singled to right, Colás scored.6–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 11Colás doubled to right, Burger scored.6–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 11Biggio doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Chapman scored, Merrifield to third.6–0
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 11Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Bichette scored, Varsho to second.4–0
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 11Varsho reached on bunt single to first, Springer scored, Bichette to second.3–0
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 11Bichette singled to right, Espinal scored, Springer to third.2–0
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 11Springer singled to center, Biggio scored, Espinal to second.1–0
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- CHW +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −17 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 20–2124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 4–0 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.